The NCAA Tournament, or as its more widely known, March Madness is upon us again. Its another year, and another field of teams will vie for the national championship. More importantly, millions of dollars will be gambled in office pools and prop bets across the country.
Every year, picking the winners is a crap shoot. In 2001 couple of professors at Yale published a paper called "March Madness and the Office Pool", trying to decipher an algorithm that could predict the outcomes of the games. Their best result? 58 percent.
So, at one of the most prestigious universities in the world, the best minds could only guess approximately 37 games correctly out of a possible 64. Do you think you can do better?
I do, and I will tell you how, just by following Brett Fuller's Three Rules of Picking the NCAA Tournament.
Rule 1: Spend no more than 20 minutes, but no less than 10 to fill out your bracket.
You should spend some time on your brackets if you really care about winning your office pool. The trick is, you shouldn't spend too much time over analyzing the breakdown of every game. Insticts 
are key in filling out your tournament brackets. Better seeded teams usually will defeat higher seeded teams. Location of the tournament matters, to a degree. Records matter.
I draw the line at 20 minutes, because with the Internet (and ESPN.com) you can look at each of the team's pages and find out all the information you need in a few seconds. Things to look for:
- Does the team have one ridiculously good player, or are their statistics evenly spread? (Historically, it has been great for a small seed to have One Guy (Wally Sczerbiak, Bryce Drew, Stephon Curry), but bad for a big seed (Jamaal Tinsley, Brendan Heywood, South Carolina).
- Did the team make the tournament last year? Experience usually wins out. A 13 seed with seniors that have been to the tournament two or three times usually has an advantage over a four seed with inexperienced, more talented players. (Cough, Valpo, cough).
- Where is the college located and whether or not a non-conference home game will affect the team? (Did you know Villanova this year, a fourth seed, will play their first two games at home in Philadelphia?)
Rule 2: Pay attention to Conferences
Conference reputation is a great method for determining one team or another. Below I have listed a quick breakdown of the six major conferences with some hints on the styles of play. Seeing how teams played out of conference, though, can be more of a sign on how a team will do in the tournament. Coaches coach in-conference games differently because they have to play the other team multiple times. Including conference tournaments, a team may play another team 3 times in a year. Looking at out of conference games lets you know how unfamiliar teams can play. I think the best example of this is how Michigan State, of the "Can't score Big Ten" threw up 90+ points on the now-eight-seeded Oklahoma State. Purdue lost in overtime to the 2 seed Oklahoma Sooners on neutral court where the free throw discrepancy was somewhere near +40 for Oklahoma. In short, beware of the Big Ten.
Conference Watch
ACC- These teams run fast and score a lot of points. Often times, though, they rely too heavily on longer jump shots that don't always fall, especially on the second day of a regional. (Duke, UNC,
Big East- These teams played the toughest conference this year, so they are battle tested. Most teams in this conference play very physical and the refs in the tournament call games close. Beware of foul trouble. (UCONN, Pittsburgh, Syracuse,
Big Ten- These teams play solid defense and wear out other teams on offense. Their style of play often gets teams deep in the tournament, but they are susceptible to teams that 'run and gun'. This is why the ACC-Big Ten match-up each year is so one-sided (link)(Purdue, MSU, OSU, Illinois)
Big 12- These teams are big and physical, sort of a hybrid between Big Ten style of play and Big East, so they are susceptible to fast teams and foul trouble. Often the Big 12 does not go much further than the Elite Eight.
Pac 10- They can shoot with the best of 'em, but are in down year because they lost so many players to the NBA draft(link). UCLA is well coached, and may be a dark horse this year. (UCLA, Washington, USC, Arizona) SEC- Let me give you a hint: Because powerhouses like Florida and Kentucky are having a down year, DO NOT PICK AN SEC TO GO INTO THE SECOND WEEK. JUST DONT.
Major Mids- Teams like Butler and Gonzaga, who are always susceptible to an early knock out, but usually win 2 games. Thats just history.
Rule 3: Remember to select upset, right?
"Every year a 12 seed beats a 5." Well, you shouldn't pick an upset just because a seeding match up historically has done well. Only choose this if you really thing that 12 seed will win. This year? I don't think any 12 will beat any 5. Why? I think Those Who Choose the Seeds have gotten better at their jobs. There are too many statistics to normalize teams and compare them to one another. Upsets are harder to pick these days because:
(A)Teams are more accurately evaluated today than even five years ago, and
(B)Teams in the middle (i.e. Seeds 6-11) are so even, that you can't even call a Temple defeating Arizona State an upset. When in doubt, refer back to rules 1 and 2.
Does that seem like too much to digest at one time? Just take this handy guide and fill out your brackets using this like a map key. The Final Four (and your office pool winnings) await you.